Flu pandemic fears continue

The threat of a flu pandemic is greater than ever because of the continuing spread of the bird flu virus in southeast Asia, the World Health Organisation warned last month. With bird flu outbreaks now being reported for more than 12 months, despite countermeasures, the possibility of a global epidemic that could kill millions of people is considered by some officials to be more likely than not. More than 50 people have died from the H5N1 avian flu virus in southeast Asia, most of them in Vietnam, where tens of thousands raise poultry in small backyard farms. In its current form, the virus is difficult for humans to contract, but if it changes its genetic make-up, it could spread rapidly. If the virus infects a person who has the human flu virus, the two viruses may be able to shuffle their genes to create a deadly mix. A new strain could combine the lethal effects of the bird virus with the ability to spread easily among people supplied by the human virus. " We are facing a serious situation not only in Vietnam, but in the region of avian influenza, " said Hans Troedsson, a World Health Organisation (WHO) representative in Vietnam. " There is an extremely short window to contain the virus if it changes, " he said. WHO computer models suggest that a pandemic of a human virus containing H5N1 elements could kill between two and seven million in a " best case scenario " based on data from the " mild " pandemic of 1968. But if it were similar to the 1918 pandemic, the models estimate a much higher total. Peter Horby, the WHO medical epidemiologist in Hanoi, said that, while the mortality rate from H5N1 infections was falling, the virus appeared to be adapting to human hosts, which was taken to be an indication that transmission between humans would become easier. " The fact that it has been around for a year and we haven't yet seen a pandemic is no reason to be complacent, " he said. " I'm more concerned than I was a year ago. " He estimated the probability News focus Flu pandemic fears continue With bird flu outbreaks continuing in southeast Asia and humans still becoming infected, health authorities are growing increasingly jittery about the prospects of a new flu pandemic developing and how little time they would have to …